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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the current race is profoundly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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